Weather Forecaster- what a wonderful profession!

I used to dream of being a major league baseball player. I was a very good fielder and if I could be successful at the plate one out of three tries I would be worshipped. Well the pitchers got better, I stayed small and skinny… Oh well enough said. In what profession can you fail most of the time and still be successful? Hmmmmmm, Oh wait! I should have been a meteorologist!

I was raised in the suburbs of Chicago and clearly recall that the forecast for Thursday January 26th, 1967 was for light snow, possible 4 inches of accumulation. Well it hit 4 inches and kept snowing, and snowing, and snowing until 10am Friday January, 27, twenty nine hours after it had started. Twenty three inches of snow had fallen motorists were stranded, businesses were closed, store shelves were empty of all the essential items. The same forecasters who had predicted 4 inches on the 26th were working the 27th, “Let me explain to you quickly what happened yesterday and then we’ll get on to today’s forecast…”

I bring this up because I believe they’re wrong most of the time, even though they give approximations instead of yes or no’s. A 50% chance of rain? Couldn’t any of us do that? It will, or it won’t!

I’m thinking about forecasting errors because the other day I was going to go for a long bike ride. The weather forecast was 100% chance of rain at 3:00pm. I hardly ever hear that so I opted for indoor activities. There were clouds out most of the day and it did look like storms were on their way around 2. I stayed in, kept myself busy and wished I could have gotten that bike ride in. I looked out the window at 2:45 and it wasn’t raining. I checked the forecast again and it now said 80% chance of rain at 3.

Hey! Wait a minute! These guys are wrong quite often, now they’re changing their answers in midstream? How is that fair? Imagine how I could do on Jeopardy when Alex says, “I’m sorry Phil, the correct answer is President Lincoln” I would answer immediately, “No Alex, I am amending my answer to Abraham Lincoln.” I’m sure that with these new rules in place Alex would say, “We have a new Jeopardy champion! Phil’s revised answer is correct!” Soon the local news stations will be advertising “Our meteorologist has a 99% accuracy rating” with a scroll on the bottom of the screen saying “If you view the forecast updates.”

Ah, but I digress. Weather forecasters have a tough job. I guess I’m just disappointed I didn’t get my ride in the other day, maybe I’ll go tomorrow. Has anybody heard the forecast?